From 0 to 38 million farmers in just two years, PxD’s work shows how innovations in weather forecasting can be scaled rapidly and sustainably to strengthen climate resilience for smallholders. 

In 2023, India’s Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (MoA&FW) signed an MoU with the Development Innovation Lab India (DIL-India) to pilot and scale solutions at the intersection of climate change, food security, and farmer welfare. As part of this initiative, PxD partnered with DIL-India and MoA&FW to deliver seasonal forecasts digitally to farmers in 2024. The MoA&FW reached 8.6 million farmers across five states with total rainfall forecasts and an additional 0.85 million farmers in Telangana with monsoon onset forecasts, bringing the total reach to 9.45 million farmers. The design was informed by extensive farmer feedback, ensuring messages were simple, transparent about forecast accuracy, and directly actionable for planting and crop decisions. Message dissemination was done through MoA&FW’s m-Kisna system. 

In 2025, this work scaled to unprecedented heights. The Human-Centered Weather Forecasts (HCWF) initiative at the University of Chicago achieved a step change in technology by developing pioneering mid to long-range AI-powered monsoon onset forecasts. PxD and DIL-India, together with MoA&FW and the Department of Agriculture and Farmers’ Empowerment (DAFE) in Odisha, translated these forecasts into accessible, actionable messages through iterative design, testing, and learning, and embedded their delivery into public dissemination systems. As a result, these improved onset forecasts reached 38 million farmers nationwide. This combination of technological breakthrough and effective scaling through government systems illustrates how PxD is building pathways from innovation to sustainable national adoption, ensuring millions of smallholders can benefit from cutting-edge forecasts year after year.